Trading News to Watch Next Week (03 – 07 September 2018)

Important economic news 03-07 September

Next week, we expect a shower of market-shifting economic events. Some examples include a Retail Sales m/m report (AUD), Manufacturing PMI report (GBP), and a Trade Balance statement (CAD). Please find the full list of events below.

Monday, 03 September 2018

 

AUD – Retail Sales m/m – 2:30 am (High Impact)

Reflects the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. This is the earliest look at vital consumer spending data.

An actual change of 0.4% slightly beats a forecast of 0.3%.

AUD – Company Operating Profits q/q – 2:30 am (Medium Impact)

Denotes the change in the total value of profits earned by corporations.

An actual change of 5.9% significantly beats a forecast of 3.1%.

GBP – Manufacturing PMI – 9:30 am (High Impact)

Shows the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) based on a survey of 600 purchasing managers which asks them to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories.

It’s a leading indicator of economic health—businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company’s view of the economy.

Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, while below that indicates contraction. An actual index of 54.0 is slightly behind a forecast of 54.2.

Tuesday, 04 September 2018

 

AUD – Cash Rate – 5:30 am (High Impact)

Shows the interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries. Reserve Bank Board members come to a consensus on where to set the rate.

Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation—traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future.

An actual rate of 1.50% confirms a forecast of the same value.

AUD – RBA Rate Statement – 5:30 am (High Impact)

It’s among the primary tools the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) Reserve Bank Board uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy.

It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future decisions.

GBP – Construction PMI – 9:30 am (Medium Impact)

Shows the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the construction industry.

The PMI is based on a survey of about 170 purchasing managers which are asked to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories.

The index a leading indicator of economic health—businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company’s view of the economy.

Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, while below that indicates contraction. An actual index level of 55.8 significantly beats a forecast of 52.8.

USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI – 3:00 pm (High Impact)

Shows the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the construction industry.

The PMI is based on a survey of about 400 purchasing managers which are asked to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories.

The index a leading indicator of economic health—businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company’s view of the economy.

Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, while below that indicates contraction. An actual index level of 58.1 slightly underperforms vs. a forecast of 59.4.

Wednesday, 05 September 2018

 

AUD – GDP q/q – 2:30 am (High Impact)

Shows the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

It’s the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s health.

An actual value of 1.0% slightly beats a forecast of 0.9%.

GBP – Services PMI – 9:30 аm (High Impact)

Shows the Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry. The PMI is based on a survey of purchasing managers which are asked to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories.

The index is a leading indicator of economic health—businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company’s view of the economy.

Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, while below that indicates contraction. An actual index level of 53.5 slightly underperforms vs. a forecast of 54.7.

CAD – Trade Balance – 1:30 pm (High Impact)

Shows the difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation’s exports.

Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers.

A positive number indicates that more goods were exported than imported. An actual value of -0.6 billion significantly outperforms a forecast of -2.3 billion.

CAD – BOC Rate Statement – 3:00 pm (High Impact)

It’s the primary tool the BOC (Bank of Canada) uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy.

It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision.

Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future decisions.

CAD – Overnight Rate – 3:00 pm (High Impact)

Shows the interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend overnight funds between themselves.

Short-term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation—traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future.

An actual rate of 1.50% confirms a forecast of the same value.

Thursday, 06 September 2018

Stock market graph

Source: Pexels.com
AUD – Trade Balance – 2:30 am (High Impact)

Shows the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month.

Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation’s exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers.

A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported. An actual value difference of 1.87 billion is way ahead of a forecast of 0.91 billion.

USD – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change – 1:15 pm (High Impact)

Estimated change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government.

ADP (Automatic Data Processing, Inc.) analyses payroll data from more than 23 million workers to derive employment growth estimations.

Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

An actual number of 219 000 significantly outperforms a forecast of 186 000.

USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – 3:00 pm (High Impact)

Shows the level of a diffusion index based on 400 surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry.

The respondents were asked to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories.

The index is a leading indicator of economic health—businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company’s view of the economy.

Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, while below that indicates contraction. An actual value difference of 55.7 is slightly behind a forecast of 58.6.

USD – Crude Oil Inventories – 4:00 pm (High Impact)

Tracks the change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

This report by the Energy Information Administration is the primary gauge of supply and demand imbalances in the market, which can lead to changes in production levels and price volatility.

An actual barrel count of -2.6 million is significantly lower than a forecast of -0.7 million.

Friday, 07 September 2018

 

CAD – Employment Change – 1:30 pm (High Impact)

Shows the change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

This is vital economic data released shortly after the month ends. The combination of importance and earliness makes for hefty market impacts.

Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

An actual value number of 54 100 crushes a forecast of 17 000.

CAD – Unemployment Rate – 1:30 pm (High Impact)

Shows the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.

Although it’s generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions.

An actual value of 5.8% slightly outperforms a forecast of 5.9%.

USD – Average Hourly Earnings m/m – 1:30 pm (High Impact)

Shows the change in the price businesses pay for labour, excluding the farming industry.

It’s a leading indicator of consumer inflation—when businesses pay more for labor the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer.

An actual value of 0.3% confirms a forecast of the same value.

USD – Non-Farm Employment Change – 1:30 pm (High Impact)

Denotes the change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

This is vital economic data released shortly after the month ends. The combination of importance and earliness makes for hefty market impacts.

Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

An actual number of 157 000 greatly underperforms a forecast of 191 000.

USD – Unemployment Rate – 1:30 pm (High Impact)

Shows the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.

An actual value of 3.9% confirms a forecast of the same value.

Missed our previous weekly report? Check it out here.

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For more detailed information, please visit our Economic Calendar.

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