Trading News to Watch Next Week (06 – 10 August 2018)

Important Economic News

August is upon us and, with it, a wealth of information for traders worldwide. Next week, make sure to make room in your schedule for a GDP m/m report from the UK, an unemployment rate report from Canada, a Monetary Policy statement by the Reserve Bank of Australia, a crude oil report from the US, and other notable events.

Monday, 06 August 2018

 

USD – Mortgage Delinquencies – Tentative (Medium Impact)

Includes the percentage of MBA(Mortgage Bankers Association)-represented mortgages which were at least one payment late during the previous quarter.

Although it’s generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of delinquencies can be an important signal of the housing market’s health because it’s correlated with home inventories. Lower inventories will spur homebuilders to start new construction.

An actual value of 4.63% for May beats February performance of 5.17%.

USD – Loan Officer Survey – Tentative (Low Impact)

The survey asks respondents about changes in the standards and terms of the banks’ lending and the state of business and household demand for loans.
It’s correlated with spending and confidence—rising debt levels are a sign that lenders feel comfortable issuing loans, and that consumers and businesses are confident in their financial position and eager to spend money.

EUR – Retail PMI – 9:10 am (Low Impact)

Shows the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the retail industry.

Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, while below that indicates contraction. An actual value of 51.8 for July slightly outperforms a value of 51.7 for last month.

AUD – AIG Construction Index – 11:30 pm (Low Impact)

The Australian Industry Group Construction Index reflects the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed construction companies.

The survey includes about 200 construction companies, asking respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories.

Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below that indicates contraction. An actual value of 50.6 for July underperforms when pitted against June’s performance of 54.0.

Tuesday, 07 August 2018

 

AUD – Cash Rate – 5:30 am (High Impact)

Reflects the interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation—traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future.

An actual value of 1.50% confirms a forecast of the same value.

AUD – RBA Rate Statement – 5:30 am (High Impact)

This statement by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is among the primary tools the Reserve Bank Board uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy.

It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future decisions.

GBP – Halifax HPI m/m – 8:30 am (Medium Impact)

Reflects the change in the price of homes financed by the Halifax Bank of Scotland. This statistic acts as a leading indicator of the housing industry health because rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity.

An actual value of 0.3% confirms a forecast of the same value.

Wednesday, 08 August 2018

 

NZD – Inflation Expectations q/q – 4:00 am (High Impact)

This is a survey of about 100 consumers which asks respondents where they expect prices to be 24 months in the future. It shows the percentage that business managers expect the price of goods and services to change annually during the next 2 years.

An actual value of 2.0% for May is slightly lower than February’s expectations of 2.1%.

AUD – RBA Gov Lowe Speaks – 4:05 am

Due to deliver a speech titled “Demographics and Recent Monetary Policy” at the Anika Foundation and Australian Business Economists lunch, in Sydney.

USD – Crude Oil Inventories – 3:30 pm (High Impact)

Reflects the change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week. It’s the primary gauge of supply and demand imbalances in the market, which can lead to changes in production levels and price volatility.

An actual barrel count of 3.8 million beats a forecast of -2.6 million.

NZD – Official Cash Rate – 10:00 pm (High Impact)

This is the interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the RBNZ to other banks overnight. Short-term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation—traders look at most other indicators just to predict how rates will change in the future.

An actual value of 1.75% confirms a forecast of the same value.

NZD – RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement – 10:00 pm (High Impact)

In this report the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is mandated to include details on how they will achieve their inflation targets, how they propose to formulate and implement monetary policy during the next five years, and how monetary policy has been implemented since the last statement’s release.

NZD – RBNZ Rate Statement – 10:00 pm (High Impact)

It’s among the primary tools the RBNZ uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision.

Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future decisions.

NZD – RBNZ Press Conference – 11:00 pm (High Impact)

The press conference is about 30 minutes long and has 2 parts—first a prepared statement is read, then the conference is open to press questions. The questions sometimes lead to unscripted answers that create heavy market volatility.

It’s among the primary tools the RBNZ uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It covers in detail the factors that affected the most recent interest rate decision, such as the overall economic outlook and inflation. Most importantly, it provides clues regarding future monetary policy.

Thursday, 09 August 2018

 

CNY – CPI y/y – 2:30 am (Medium Impact)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation.

Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to respond by raising interest rate.

An actual value of 1.9% confirms a forecast of the same value.

USD – PPI m/m – 1:30 pm (High Impact)

The Producer Price Index (PPI) shows the change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers.

It’s a leading indicator of consumer inflation—when producers charge more for goods and services the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer.

An actual value of 0.3% slightly outperforms a forecast of 0.2%.

USD – Unemployment Claims – 1:30 pm (Medium Impact)

Shows the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

This is the nation’s earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week—there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes.

The current forecast for August is anchored at 220 thousand people.

Friday, 10 August 2018

 

AUD – RBA Monetary Policy Statement – 2:30 am (High Impact)

An official statement from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on Monetary Policy, released on a quarterly basis.

The current actual value for July is anchored at 0.3%.

GBP – GDP m/m – 9:30 am (High Impact)

Shows the change in the total GVA (Gross Value Added) of all goods and services produced by the economy. It’s the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s health.

GBP – Manufacturing Production m/m – 9:30 am (High Impact)

Shows the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers.

It’s a leading indicator of economic health—production reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle and is correlated with consumer conditions, such as employment levels and earnings.

An actual value of 0.4% underperforms when compared to a forecast of 1.0%.

GBP – Prelim GDP q/q – 9:30 am (High Impact)

Shows the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It’s the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s health.

An actual value of 0.1% slightly underperforms when compared to a forecast of 0.3%.

CAD – Employment Change – 1:30 pm (High Impact)

Shows the change in the number of employed people during the previous month. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

An actual people count of 31.8 thousand greatly outperforms a forecast of 22.3 thousand.

CAD – Unemployment Rate – 1:30 pm (High Impact)

Reflects the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.

Although it’s generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions.

An actual value of 6.0% slightly underperforms compared to a forecast of 5.8%.

USD – CPI m/m – 1:30 pm (High Impact)

Shows the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.

An actual value of 0.1% slightly underperforms compared to a forecast of 0.2%.

USD – Core CPI m/m – 1:30 pm (High Impact)

Shows the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy.

Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.

An actual value of 0.2% confirms a forecast of the same value.

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For more detailed information, please visit our Economic Calendar.

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