Trading News to Watch Next Week (08 – 12 October 2018)

Gazing into our crystal ball of global economics we see that the next week will bring us events like the NAB Business Confidence (AUD), ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR), and Trade Balance (CNY).

Update your trading strategies accordingly—check out the full report for a detailed list of all market-shifting events for the upcoming week.

 

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Monday, 08 October 2018

 

CHF – Unemployment Rate – 6:45 am (Low Impact)

Shows the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.

Although it’s generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions.

An actual unemployment rate of 2.6% confirms a forecast of the same value.

EUR – German Industrial Production m/m – 7:00 am (Low Impact)

Shows the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

The report is a leading indicator of economic health—production reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle and is correlated with consumer conditions such as employment levels and earnings.

An actual inflation-adjusted value of -1.1% underperforms vs. a 0.2% forecast.

Tuesday, 09 October 2018

 

AUD – NAB Business Confidence – 1:30 am (Medium Impact)

The NAB* report tracks the level of a diffusion index based on a survey of about businesses, excluding the farming industry. In it, the respondents are asked to rate the relative level of current business conditions.

The report a leading indicator of economic health—businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment.

Above 0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions. An actual value of 4 starkly underperforms vs. a value of 7 for the past month.

*NAB – National Australia Bank

EUR – German Trade Balance – 7:00 am (Low Impact)

Monitors the difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation’s exports.

Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers.

A positive number indicates that more goods were exported than imported. An actual value of 15.8B starkly underperforms vs. a 19.1B forecast.

Wednesday, 10 October 2018

 

GBP – GDP m/m – 9:30 am (High Impact)

Shows the change in the total GVA* of all goods and services produced by the economy. The report is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s health.

An actual change of 0.3% slightly comes ahead of a 0.2% forecast.

*GVA – Gross Added Value

GBP – Manufacturing Production m/m – 9:30 am (High Impact)

Shows the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers. Manufacturing makes up around 80% of total Industrial Production and tends to dominate the market impact.

This statistic is a leading indicator of economic health—production reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle and is correlated with consumer conditions such as employment levels and earnings.

An actual change of -0.2% underperforms vs. a 0.2% forecast.

GBP – Goods Trade Balance – 9:30 am (Medium Impact)

Shows the difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month. Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation’s exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers.

A positive number indicates that more goods were exported than imported. An actual value of -10.0B crushes a -11.7B forecast.

USD – PPI m/m – 1:30 pm (High Impact)

The PPI* metric shows the change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers. The metric is a leading indicator of consumer inflation—when producers charge more for goods and services the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer.

An actual value of -0.1 underperforms vs. a 0.2% forecast.

*PPI – Producer Price Index

USD – Core PPI m/m – 1:30 pm (Medium Impact)

Shows the change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers, excluding food and energy.

An actual value of -0.1% underperforms vs. a 0.2% forecast.

USD – Treasury Currency Report – Tentative (Medium Impact)

This report provides a detailed review of global exchange rate policies, economic conditions, and central bank and government actions around the world. Most importantly, the report outlines countries that the Treasury deems currency manipulators.

Thursday, 11 October 2018

 

GBP – BOE Credit Conditions Survey – 9:30 am (Medium Impact)

This report includes detailed data on secured and unsecured lending to households, small businesses, non-financial corporations, and non-bank financial firms.

It’s a survey of bank and non-bank lenders which asks respondents to rate the relative level of credit conditions in the past 3 months and next 3 months.

It’s correlated with spending and confidence—rising debt levels are a sign that lenders feel comfortable issuing loans, and that consumers and businesses are confident in their financial position and eager to spend money.

EUR – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts – 12:30 am (Medium Impact)

It’s a detailed record of the ECB* Governing Board’s most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.

ECB* – European Central Bank

USD – CPI m/m – 1:30 pm (High Impact)

The CPI* index tracks the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. The average price of various goods and services are sampled and then compared to the previous sampling.

Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.

An actual price change of 0.2% falls short of meeting a 0.3% forecast.

CPI* – Consumer Price Inflation

USD – Core CPI m/m – 1:30 pm (High Impact)

The Core CPI index shows the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.

An actual price change of 0.1% falls short of meeting a 0.2% forecast.

USD – Crude Oil Inventories – 4:00 pm (Medium Impact)

Shows the change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

It’s the primary gauge of supply and demand imbalances in the market, which can lead to changes in production levels and price volatility.

An actual barrel count of 8.0M significantly exceeds a 1.1M forecast.

NZD – Business NZ Manufacturing Index – 10:30 pm (Medium Impact)

Shows the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers. It’s a survey of manufacturers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories.

Above 50.0 indicates expansion, below indicates contraction. An actual diffusion value of 52.0 is slightly above a value of 51.2 for the preceding month.

Friday, 12 October 2018

 

AUD – RBA Financial Stability Review – 1:30 am (Medium Impact)

This financial review is an assessment of conditions in the financial system and potential risks to financial stability—the evidence on strains and imbalances can provide insight into the future of monetary policy.

CNY – Trade Balance – Tentative (Medium Impact)

Shows the difference in value between imported and exported goods during the previous month. Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners usually buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation’s exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers.

Above 50.0 indicates expansion, while below that indicates contraction. An actual value difference of 180B is slightly below a 183B forecast.

USD – Prelim UoM* Consumer Sentiment – 3:00 pm (Medium Impact)

Shows the level of a composite index based on a survey of about 500 consumers. In it, respondents are asked to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions.

Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

UoM* – University of Michigan

An actual index value of 100.8 crushes a 96.7 forecast.

Missed our previous report? Follow this link to catch up on last week’s top news. While you’re at it, don’t forget to also visit our Economic Calendar for extra details regarding each event.

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