Trading News to Watch Next Week (1-5 April 2019)

Our video features some, but not all, of the leading market events for next week. Explore the full list of 1-5 April events in our detailed report.

Monday, April 1

 

GBP – Manufacturing PMI – 4:30 am (Medium Impact)

Tracks the level of a diffusion index based on a survey of about 600 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories.

Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, while below that indicates contraction. A value of 52.0 for the previous month resonated with the general consensus.

EUR – Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y – 5:00 am (Medium Impact)

Monitors the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco.

A price change of 1.0% for the previous month slightly dipped below a 1.1% forecast.

USD – Core Retail Sales m/m – 8:30 am (High Impact)

Shows the change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles. While automobile sales account for about 20% of retail sales, they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend.

A value change of 0.9% for the previous month outperformed a 0.4% forecast.

USD – Retail Sales m/m – 8:30 am (High Impact)

Tracks the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. This is the primary metric of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

A value change of 0.2% for the previous month slightly rose above a 0.0% forecast.

USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI – 10:00 am (High Impact)

Shows the level of a diffusion index based on a survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories.

Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, while below that indicates contraction. A diffusion index value of 54.2 for the previous month was just shy of reaching a 55.6 forecast.

AUD – RBA Rate Statement – 11:30 pm (High Impact)

The statement is among the primary tools the RBA Reserve Bank Board uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision.

Tuesday, April 2

 

AUD – Annual Budget Release – 4:30 am (High Impact)

Picture of city at night with AUD dollar in background

Source: DF Markets

This document outlines the government’s budget for the year, including expected spending and income levels, borrowing levels, financial objectives, and planned investments.

USD – Core Durable Goods Orders m/m – 8:30 am (High Impact)

The report observes the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods, excluding transportation items.

A value change of -0.1% for the previous month failed to meet a 0.1% forecast.

AUD – Retail Sales m/m – 8:30 pm (High Impact)

Tracks the change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

A value change of 0.1% for the previous month failed to meet a 0.3% forecast.

AUD – Trade Balance – 8:30 pm (Medium Impact)

Shows the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month.

A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported. A value difference of 4.55B for the previous month crushed a 2.85B forecast.

Wednesday, April 3

 

GBP –  Services PMI – 4:30 am (Medium Impact)

Tracks the level of a diffusion index based on a survey of purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories.

Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, while below that indicates contraction. A value of 51.3 rose significantly above a 50.0 consensus.

USD – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change – 8:15 am (Medium Impact)

Represents the estimated change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government. Automatic Data Processing Inc. analyses payroll data from over 23 million workers to derive employment growth estimations.

A value difference of 183K for the previous month failed to reach a 190K forecast.

Thursday, April 4

 

EUR – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts – 7:30 am (Medium Impact)

This is a detailed record of the ECB Governing Board’s most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.

CAD – Ivey PMI – 10:00 am (Medium Impact)

Shows the level of a diffusion index based on a survey of about 175 purchasing managers, selected geographically and by sector of activity to match the economy as a whole, which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories.

Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, while below that indicates contraction. A value of 50.6 significantly underperformed vs. a 55.1 consensus.

Friday, April 5

 

CAD – Employment Change – 8:30 am (High Impact)

Measures the change in the number of employed people during the previous month. This is vital economic data released shortly after the month ends. The combination of importance and earliness makes for hefty market impacts.

An employment shift of 55.9K for the previous month crushed a 0.6K consensus.

CAD – Unemployment Rate – 8:30 am (High Impact)

Shows the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. Although it’s generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions.

An unemployment rate of 5.8% for the previous month resonated with analysts’ forecast.

USD – Average Hourly Earnings m/m – 8:30 am (High Impact)

Tracks the change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry.

A price change of 0.4% for the previous month slightly beat the 0.3% forecast.

USD – Non-Farm Employment Change – 8:30 am (High Impact)

Picture of New York with American flag on background

Source: DF Markets

Shows the change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

An employment change of 20K for the previous month failed to meet a 180K forecast.

USD – Unemployment Rate – 8:30 am (High Impact)

Shows the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. Although it’s generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions.

An unemployment rate of 3.8% for the previous month rose slightly above a 3.9% forecast.

Missed our previous report? Go back and catch up on last week’s top news. You can also visit our economic calendar to study past and upcoming events in more detail.

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