Trading News to Watch Next Week (11-15 February 2019)

While the main icing on the next week’s cake seems to be several market-moving events from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, there is still a lot going on in the background. Find out what to expect during the 11-15 February period in our weekly issue of “Trading News to Watch Next Week”.

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Monday, February 11

 

GBP – GDP m/m – 4:30 am (High Impact)

Tracks the change in the total value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

A value of 0.2% for the previous month slightly exceeded a 0.1% forecast.

GBP – Manufacturing Production m/m – 4:30 am (High Impact)

Monitors the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers. Manufacturing makes up around 80% of total industrial production and tends to dominate the market impact.

A value of -0.3% for the past month slightly underperformed vs. a 0.4% forecast.

GBP – Preliminary GDP q/q – 4:30 am (High Impact)

Shows the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. There are 2 versions of quarterly GDP released about 45 days apart—preliminary and final. The preliminary release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact.

A value of 0.6% for the previous quarter fully resonated with analysts’ forecasts.

Tuesday, February 12

 

NZD – Official Cash Rate – 8:00 pm (High Impact)

Tracks the interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) to other banks overnight. During the event the RBNZ Governor decides where to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers.

The last evaluation left the interest rate at 1.75%, which adhered to the general consensus.

NZD – RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement – 8:00 pm (High Impact)

In this report the RBNZ is mandated to include details on how they will achieve their inflation targets, how they propose to formulate and implement monetary policy during the next five years, and how monetary policy has been implemented since the last statement’s release.

NZD – RBNZ Rate Statement – 8:00 pm (High Impact)

Picture of modern skyscrapers at night

Source: DF Markets

The statement acts one of the primary tools the RBNZ uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future decisions.

NZD – Inflation Expectations q/q – 9:00 pm (High Impact)

Tracks the percentage that business managers expect the price of goods and services to change annually during the next 2 years. The forecast is based off a survey of about 100 consumers which asks respondents where they expect prices to be 24 months in the future.

The percentage for the previous quarter amounted to 2%—the same as the quarter before it.

NZD – RBNZ Press Conference – 9:00 pm (High Impact)

The press conference is about 30 minutes long and contains 2 parts. During the first one a prepared statement is read, then the conference is open to press questions. The questions sometimes lead to unscripted answers that create heavy market volatility.

Wednesday, February 13

 

GBP – CPI y/y – 4:30 am (High Impact)

Shows the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. This is considered the UK’s most important inflation data because it’s used as the central bank’s inflation target. The data is generated by averaging the price of various goods and services and then comparing them to the sampling done a year earlier.

A value of 2.1% for the previous month confirmed a forecast of the same value.

USD – CPI m/m – 8:30 am (High Impact)

Tracks the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. This is considered the UK’s most important inflation data because it’s used as the central bank’s inflation target. The data is generated by averaging the price of various goods and services and then comparing them to the sampling done a year earlier.

A value of -0.1% for the previous month confirmed a forecast of the same value.

USD – Core CPI m/m – 8:30 am (High Impact)

Monitors the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy. Food and energy prices account for about a quarter of CPI, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The FOMC usually pays more attention to the core data, and so do traders.

A value of 0.2% for the previous month confirmed a forecast of the same value.

CNY – Trade Balance – Tentative (Medium Impact)

Monitors the difference in value between imported and exported goods during the previous month. Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners usually buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation’s exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers.

An actual value difference of 395B for the previous month triumphed over a 345B forecast.

Thursday, February 14

 

USD – Core Retail Sales m/m – 8:30 am (High Impact)

Tracks the change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles.

A value of 0.2% for the previous month confirmed a forecast of the same value.

USD – PPI m/m – 8:30 am (High Impact)

Tracks the change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers. The PPI index is a leading indicator of consumer inflation—when producers charge more for goods and services the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer.

A value of -0.2% for the previous month slightly underperformed vs. a -0.1% forecast.

USD – Retail Sales m/m – 8:30 am (High Impact)

Tracks the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. The report acts as the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

An actual value of 0.2% for the previous month slightly topped a 0.1% forecast.

Friday, February 15

 

GBP – Retail Sales m/m – 4:30 am (High Impact)

Picture of trading graphs and twenty New Zealand dollars

Source: DF Markets

Shows the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. The report acts as the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

An actual value of -0.9% for the previous month slightly underperformed vs. a -0.8% forecast.

USD – Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment – 10:00 am (Medium Impact)

Reveals the level of a composite index based on  a survey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions. There are 2 versions of this data released 14 days apart—preliminary and revised. The preliminary release is the earlier and thus tends to have the most impact.

An actual value of 90.7 for the previous month gravely underperformed vs. 97.0 forecast.

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Missed our previous report? Visit us here to catch up on last week’s top news. While you’re at it, don’t forget to also visit our Economic Calendar for extra details regarding each event.

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