Trading News to Watch Next Week (17 – 21 September 2018)

The upcoming week is shaping up to be exciting to both traders and investors alike, promising events like a Libor Rate Statement (CHF), a Monetary Policy Statement (JPY), a quarter over quarter GDP report (NZD)… and the list keeps on going.

Monday, 17 September 2018

 

EUR – Final CPI y/y – 10:00 am (Medium Impact)

The CPI* shows the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.

*CPI – Consumer Price Index

An actual change of 2.1% confirms a forecast of the same value.

CAD – Foreign Securities Purchases – 1:30 pm (Medium Impact)

Denotes the total value of domestic stocks, bonds, and money-market assets purchased by foreigners during the reported month.

Demand for domestic securities and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to purchase the nation’s securities.

An actual value of 11.55B crushes a forecast of 4.91B.

USD – Empire State Manufacturing Index – 1:30 pm (Medium Impact)

Tracks the level of a diffusion index based on a survey of about 200 manufacturers in New York state which asks respondents to rate the relative level of general business conditions.

The index is a leading indicator of economic health—businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment.

Above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, while below that indicates worsening conditions. An actual index value of 25.6 beats a forecast of 20.1.

 

Tuesday, 18 September 2018

 

AUD – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes – 2:30 am (High Impact)

This is a detailed record of the RBA* Reserve Bank Board’s most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.

*RBA – Reserve Bank of Australia

CAD – Manufacturing Sales m/m – 1:30 pm (Medium Impact)

Shows the change in the total value of sales made by manufacturers. The report is a leading indicator of economic health—manufacturers are quickly affected by market conditions, and changes in their sales can be an early signal of future activity such as spending, hiring, and investment.

An actual change of 1.1% slightly exceeds a forecast of 1.0%.

NZD – Current Account – 11:45 pm (Medium Impact)

Measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods, services, income flows, and unilateral transfers during the previous quarter.

The report is directly linked to currency demand—a rising surplus indicates that foreigners are buying more of the domestic currency to execute transactions in the country.

An actual value difference of 0.18B exceeds a forecast of 0.5B.

 

Wednesday, 19 September 2018

Important economic news for 17 - 21 September

JPY – BOJ Policy Rate – Tentative (High Impact)

Shows the interest rate levied on excess current account balances held at the BOJ*. The rate below is currently the BOJ’s main operating target.

Short-term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation—traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future.

An actual interest rate of -0.10% completely confirms a forecast of the same value.

*BOJ – Bank of Japan

JPY – Monetary Policy Statement – Tentative (High Impact)

This is among the primary tools the BOJ uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy.

It contains the outcome of their decision on asset purchases and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision.

Most importantly, it projects the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future votes.

JPY – BOJ Press Conference – Tentative (High Impact)

This conference is among the primary methods the BOJ uses to communicate with investors regarding monetary policy.

It covers the factors that affected the most recent interest rate decision, the overall economic outlook, inflation, and clues regarding future monetary policy.

GBP – CPI y/y – 9:30 am (High Impact)

The CPI tracks the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. This is considered the UK’s most important inflation data because it’s used as the central bank’s inflation target.

Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.

An actual price change of 2.5% confirms a forecast of the same value.

USD – Crude Oil Inventories – 3:30 pm (High Impact)

Shows the change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

This report is the primary gauge of supply and demand imbalances in the market, which can lead to changes in production levels and price volatility.

An actual barrel count of -5.3M significantly contrasts with a forecast of -1.3M.

NZD – GDP q/q – 11:45 pm (High Impact)

Shows the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

This report is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s health.

An actual change of 0.5% confirms a forecast of the same value.

 

Thursday, 20 September 2018

 

CHF – Libor Rate – 8:30 am (High Impact)

Measures the London interest rate for 3-month Swiss franc deposits. The SNB* usually announces a target range for Libor, and the midpoint is considered the target rate unless specifically stated otherwise.

Short-term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation—traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future.

An actual interest rate of -0.75% confirms a forecast of the same value.

*SNB – Swiss National Bank

CHF – SNB Monetary Policy Assessment – 8:30 am (High Impact)

This assessment is the primary tool the SNB Governing Board uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy.

It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision.

Most importantly, it projects the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future rate decisions.

GBP – Retail Sales m/m – 9:30 am (High Impact)

Shows the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level.

This is the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

An actual change of 0.7% beats a forecast of 0.2%.

 

Friday, 21 September 2018

 

GBP – Public Sector Net Borrowing – 9:30 am (Medium Impact)

Shows the difference in value between spending and income for public corporations, the central government, and local governments during the previous month.

A positive number indicates a budget deficit, while a negative number indicates a surplus. An actual value difference of -2.9B beats a forecast of -2.1B.

CAD – CPI m/m – 1:30 pm (High Impact)

Shows the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.

An actual change of 0.5% slightly tops a forecast of 0.1%.

CAD – Core Retail Sales m/m – 1:30 pm (High Impact)

Denotes the change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles. Automobile sales account for about 20% of Retail Sales, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend.

An actual interest rate of -0.1% confirms a forecast of the same value.

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For more detailed information, please visit our Economic Calendar.

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