Trading News to Watch Next Week (19 – 23 November 2018)

Hello, and welcome to our latest edition of trading news preview! Since you’re probably here to learn about next week’s top market highlights, let’s start with that first:

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– Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (AUD);

– Inflation Report Hearings (GBP);

– Speech by RBA’s Gov Lowe (AUD);

– Core Durable Goods Orders m/m (USD).

To learn more about each event that’s happening between 19 and 23 of November, keep on reading.

Tuesday, 20 November 2018

Pictured: an office room with "Reserve Bank of Australia" and the Australian flag superimposed on top

Source: DF Markets
AUD – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes – 1:30 am (High Impact)

Represents a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board’s most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.

AUD – RBA Gov Lowe Speaks – 9:20 am (High Impact)

Due to deliver a speech titled “Trust and Prosperity” at the Committee for Economic Development of Australia dinner, in Melbourne.

As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation’s currency value than any other person.

Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

GBP – Inflation Report Hearings – 11:00 am (High Impact)

During these hearings the BOE* Governor and several MPC* members testify on inflation and the economic outlook before Parliament’s Treasury Committee.

The hearings are a few hours in length and can create market volatility for the duration. Especially noted are the direct comments made about the currency markets.

BOE MPC members vote on where to set the nation’s key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

*BOE – Bank of England

*MPC – Monetary Policy

USD – Building Permits – 2:30 pm (Medium Impact)

Tracks the annualised number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month. The data provides an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining a permit is among the first steps in constructing a new building.

An actual permit count of 1.24M slightly underperforms vs. a -1.27M forecast.

All – OPEC-JMMC Meetings – Tentative (Medium Impact)

OPEC-JMMC* meetings are attended by representatives from the 13 OPEC members and 11 other oil-rich nations. They discuss a range of issues regarding energy markets and, most importantly, agree on how much oil they will produce.

The meetings are closed to the press but officials usually talk with reporters throughout the day, and a formal statement covering policy shifts and meeting objectives is released after the meetings have concluded. Source first met in Jan 2017.

*OPEC – The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries

*JMMC – Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee

Wednesday, 21 November 2018

£20 banknote

Source: DF Markets
GBP – Public Sector Net Borrowing – 10:30 am (Medium Impact)

Shows the difference in value between spending and income for public corporations, the central government, and local governments during the previous month.

A positive number indicates a budget deficit, a negative number indicates a surplus. An actual value difference of 3.3B crushes a 4.6B forecast.

USD – Core Durable Goods Orders m/m – 2:30 pm (High Impact)

Shows the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods, excluding transportation items.

Orders for aircraft are volatile and can severely distort the underlying trend. The Core data is therefore thought to be a better gauge of purchase order trends.

The report is a leading indicator of production—rising purchase orders signal that manufacturers will increase activity as they work to fill the orders.

An actual value change of 0.1% underperforms v.s a 0.5% forecast.

USD – Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment – 4:00 pm (Medium Impact)

Shows the level of a composite index based on a survey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions.

An actual index value of 98.6 is just shy of reaching a 98.9 forecast.

USD – Crude Oil Inventories – 4:30 pm (Medium Impact)

Monitors the change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week. The report acts as the primary gauge of supply and demand imbalances in the market, which can lead to changes in production levels and price volatility.

An actual barrel change of 10.3M starkly contrasts a 2.9M forecast.

Thursday, 22 November 2018

 

EUR – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts – 1:30 pm (Medium Impact)

The accounts offer a detailed record of the ECB* Governing Board’s most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.

*ECB – European Central Bank

CAD – Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks – 3:45 pm (Medium Impact)

Due to participate in a panel discussion at the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, in Ottawa. BOC* Governing Council members are responsible for setting the nation’s key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

*BOC – Bank of Canada

Friday, 23 November 2018

 

EUR – Flash Manufacturing PMI – 10:00 am (Medium Impact)

Shows the level of a diffusion index based on a survey of about 3000 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories.

The results from the survey serve as a  leading indicator of economic health—businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company’s view of the economy.

An actual diffusion index value of 52.1 underperforms vs. a 53.0 forecast.

CAD – CPI m/m – 2:30 pm (High Impact)

Shows the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. The results are derived from the The average price of various goods and services, which are sampled and then compared to the previous sampling.

Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.

An actual price change of -0.4% underperforms vs. a 0.1% forecast.

CAD – Core Retail Sales m/m – 2:30 pm (High Impact)

Shows the change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles. While automobile sales account for about 20% of retail sales, they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The core data is therefore thought to be a better gauge of spending trends.

An actual value change of -0.4% underperforms vs. a 0.1% forecast.

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Missed our previous report? Visit us here to catch up on last week’s top news. While you’re at it, don’t forget to also visit our Economic Calendar for extra details regarding each event.

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