Trading News to Watch Next Week (21-25 January 2019)

Source: DF Markets

Unemployment reports seem to be a major theme for the upcoming week, as well as a series of noteworthy statements concerning Japan’s economic stability. Don’t let trading opportunities slip away—check out our post for the full list of events and make sure to visit our in-depth (and absolutely free to use) Economic Calendar.

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Monday, January 21

 

CNY – GDP q/y – 3:00 am (Medium Impact)

Shows the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. The data represents the quarterly value compared to the same quarter a year earlier.

A value change of 6.5% for the previous quarter slightly underperformed vs. a 6.6% forecast.

CNY – Industrial Production y/y – 3:00 am (Medium Impact)

Tracks the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities. Chinese data can have a broad impact on the currency markets due to China’s influence on the global economy and investor sentiment.

A value change of 5.4% for the previous month failed to reach a 5.9% forecast.

Tuesday, January 22

 

GBP – Average Earnings Index 3m/y – 10:30 am (High Impact)

Shows the change in the price businesses and the government pay for labor, including bonuses. The data represents the 3-month moving average compared to the same period a year earlier.

A price change of 3.3% for the previous month outperformed a 3.0% forecast.

GBP – Unemployment Rate – 10:30 am (Medium Impact)

Shows the percentage of total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the past 3 months. Although it’s generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions.

An unemployment rate of 4.1% for the previous month remained consistent with the forecast.

NZD – CPI q/q – 10:45 pm (High Impact)

Tracks the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. This is extremely late relative to inflation data from other countries, but it’s the primary gauge of consumer prices and tends to create hefty market impacts.

The data is derived by sampling the average price of various goods and services, which is then compared to that of the previous sampling.

An actual value price change of 0.9% for the previous quarter slightly exceeded a 0.7% forecast.

Wednesday, January 23

 

JPY – BOJ Outlook Report – Tentative (High Impact)

The report provides valuable insight into the bank’s view of economic conditions and inflation—the key factors that will shape the future of monetary policy.

JPY – Monetary Policy Statement – Tentative (High Impact)

Japanese currency with a JPY graph in the background

Source: DF Markets

The monetary policy statement is among the primary tools the BOJ uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their decision on asset purchases and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision. Most importantly, it projects the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future votes.

JPY – BOJ Policy Rate – Tentative (Medium Impact)

Tracks the interest rate levied on excess current account balances held at the BOJ (Bank of Japan). During the meeting, the BOJ Policy Board members come to a consensus on where to set the rate.

The previous policy rate decision from December 20 to keep rates at -0.10% remained consistent with the forecast.

JPY – BOJ Press Conference – Tentative (High Impact)

The press conference is another important tool that BOJ uses to communicate with investors regarding monetary policy. It covers the factors that affected the most recent interest rate decision, the overall economic outlook, inflation, and clues regarding future monetary policy.

All – WEF Annual Meetings – Day 1 (Medium Impact)

The WEF annual meetings are held in Davos and attended by central bankers, prime ministers, finance ministers, trade ministers, and business leaders from over 90 countries. Most meetings are open to the press and officials usually talk with reporters throughout the day. Comments from central bankers and other influential officials can create significant market volatility.

CAD – Core Retail Sales m/m – 2:30 pm (High Impact)

Shows the change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles.

A value change of 0.0% for the previous month failed to reach a 0.2% forecast.

Thursday, January 24

 

AUD – Employment Change – 1:30 am (High Impact)

Shows the change in the number of employed people during the previous month. This is vital economic data released shortly after the month ends. The combination of importance and earliness makes for hefty market impacts.

An employment figure of 37.0K for the previous month crushed a 20.0K forecast.

AUD – Unemployment Rate – 1:30 am (High Impact)

Tracks the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.

An unemployment rate of 5.1% for the previous month slightly underperformed vs. a 5.0% forecast.

All – WEF Annual Meetings – Day 2 (Medium Impact)

The WEF annual meetings are held in Davos and attended by central bankers, prime ministers, finance ministers, trade ministers, and business leaders from over 90 countries. Most meetings are open to the press and officials usually talk with reporters throughout the day. Comments from central bankers and other influential officials can create significant market volatility.

EUR – Main Refinancing Rate –1:45 pm (High Impact)

Shows the interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system. The 6 members of the ECB (European Central Bank) Executive Board and 15 of the 19 governors of the Euro area central banks vote on where to set the rate, via rotation. The split of votes is not publicly revealed.

An interest rate of 0.00% for December 13 remained consistent with the forecast.

EUR – ECB Press Conference – 2:30 pm (High Impact)

Euro currency with euro symbol surrounded by stars

Source: DF Markets

The press conference is about an hour long and has 2 parts—first a prepared statement is read, then the conference is open to press questions. The questions often lead to unscripted answers that create heavy market volatility.

Friday, January 25

 

All – WEF Annual Meetings – Day 3 (Medium Impact)

WEF annual meetings are held in Davos and attended by central bankers, prime ministers, finance ministers, trade ministers, and business leaders from over 90 countries. Most meetings are open to the press and officials usually talk with reporters throughout the day. Comments from central bankers and other influential officials can create significant market volatility.

EUR – German Ifo Business Climate – 10:00 am (Medium Impact)

Shows the level of a composite index based on a survey of about 7 000 businesses which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current business conditions and expectations for the next 6 months. This survey is highly respected due to its large sample size and historic correlation with German and wider Eurozone economic conditions.

An index value of 101.0 for the previous month slightly underperformed vs. a 101.8 forecast.

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Missed our previous report? Visit us here to catch up on last week’s top news. While you’re at it, don’t forget to also visit our Economic Calendar for extra details regarding each event.

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