Trading News to Watch Next Week (23 – 27 July 2018)

An ECB Press Conference, a CPI quarter over quarter report from Australia, and an advance GDP quarter over quarter report from USA are just some of the many significant events that next week promises to bring. Take a look at the full list of events below to give yourself enough time to adjust your trading strategy accordingly.

Monday, 23 July 2018

 

USD – Existing Home Sales – 3:00 pm

Reflects the annualised number of residential buildings that were sold during the previous month, excluding new construction.

This is a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, renovations are done by the new owners, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction.

An actual value of 5.43 million underperforms when compared to a forecast of 5.52 million.

GBP – MPC Member Broadbent Speaks – 6:00 pm

BOE MPC members vote on where to set the nation’s key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

Tuesday, 24 July 2018

 

EUR – French Flash Manufacturing PMI – 8:00 am

This report reflects the performance of the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

This is a leading indicator of economic health—businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company’s view of the economy.

Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. The actual value for June is 53.1, which fails to meet an initial forecast of 54.

EUR – German Flash Manufacturing PMI – 8:30 am

This report reflects the performance of the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

This is a leading indicator of economic health—businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company’s view of the economy.

Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. The actual value for June is 55.9—slightly lower than the forecast of 56.3.

NZD – Trade Balance – 11:45 pm

This report showcases the difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation’s exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers.

A positive number indicates that more goods were exported than imported. An actual price value of 294 million wildly outperforms a forecast of 100 million.

Wednesday, 25 July 2018

 

AUD – CPI q/q – 2:30 am

It reflects the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.

An actual change of 0.4% slightly underperforms when pitted against a forecast of 0.5%.

AUD – Trimmed Mean CPI q/q – 2:30 am

Reflects the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding the most volatile 30% of items.

Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.

An actual change of 0.5% fully resonates with a forecast of the same value.

USD – Crude Oil Inventories – 3:30 pm

This report monitors the change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

It’s the primary gauge of supply and demand imbalances in the market, which can lead to changes in production levels and price volatility.

An actual count of 5.8 million barrels wildly exceeds a forecast of -3.4 million barrels.

Thursday, 26 July 2018

 

EUR – Main Refinancing Rate – 12:45 pm

Reports the interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system.

Short-term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation—traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future.

An actual interest increase rate of 0.00% resonates with a forecast of the same value.

EUR –  ECB Press Conference – 1:30 pm

It’s the primary method the ECB uses to communicate with investors regarding monetary policy. The press conference is about an hour long and has 2 parts—first a prepared statement is read, then the conference is open to press questions.

It covers in detail the factors that affected the most recent interest rate and other policy decisions, such as the overall economic outlook and inflation. Most importantly, the press conference provides clues regarding future monetary policy.

USD – Core Durable Goods Orders m/m – 1:30 pm

Reflects the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods, excluding transportation items.

It’s a leading indicator of production—rising purchase orders signal that manufacturers will increase activity as they work to fill the orders.

An actual value of -0.3% slightly underperforms when pitted against a forecast of 0.5%.

Friday, 27 July 2018

 

USD – Advance GDP q/q – 1:30 pm

Represents the annualised change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

An actual change of 2.3% outperforms aa initial forecast of 2.0%.

USD – Advance GDP Price Index q/q – 1:30 pm

Represents the annualised change in the price of all goods and services included in GDP.

It’s the broadest measure of inflation, encompassing all activities included in GDP, and is a primary instrument that the central bank uses to assess inflation.

An actual change of 2.0% underperforms when compared with an initial forecast of 2.2%.

USD – Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment – 3:00 pm

Monitors the level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers. The data is derived from a survey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions.

An actual value of 98.2 underperforms when compared with an initial forecast of 99.1.

 

For more detailed information, please visit our Economic Calendar.