Trading News to Watch Next Week (25-29 March 2019)

Our video features some, but not all, of the leading market events for next week. Explore the full list of 25-29 March events in our detailed report.

Monday, March 25

 

EUR – German Ifo Business Climate – 5:00 am (Medium Impact)

Tracks the level of a composite index based on a survey of about 7000 businesses which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current business conditions and expectations for the next 6 months.

This survey is highly respected due to its large sample size and historic correlation with German and wider Eurozone economic conditions. It tends to create a hefty market impact upon release.

An index value of 98.5 for the previous month slightly underperformed vs. a 99.0 forecast.

NZD – Trade Balance – 5:45 pm (Medium Impact)

Shows the difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month. Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation’s exports.

A positive number indicates that more goods were exported than imported. An actual value difference of -914M for the previous month plummeted way past the -300M forecast.

Tuesday, March 26

 

USD – Building Permits – 8:30 am (Medium Impact)

Shows the annualised number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month. The report is an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining a permit is among the first steps in constructing a new building.

A value of 1.35M for the previous month beat a 1.29M forecast.

USD – CB Consumer Confidence – 10:00 am (High Impact)

Measures the level of a composite index based on a survey of about 5000 households which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions including labor availability, business conditions, and overall economic situation.

NZD – Official Cash Rate – 9:00 pm (High Impact)

Tracks the Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the RBNZ to other banks overnight. During this event, the governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decides where to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers.

A previous interest rate vote of 1.75% remained consistent with the general consensus.

NZD – RBNZ Rate Statement – 9:00 pm (High Impact)

City at night with official New Zealand currency as backdrop

Source: DF Markets

This report is among the primary tools the RBNZ uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision.

Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future decisions.

Wednesday, March 27

 

CAD – Trade Balance – 8:30 am (High Impact)

Measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month. Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation’s exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers.

A positive number indicates that more goods were exported than imported. About 75% of Canadian exports are purchased by the US. A value of -4.6B for the previous month fell well short of reaching a -2.4B forecast.

NZD – ANZ Business Confidence – 8:00 pm (High Impact)

Tracks the level of a diffusion index based on a survey of about 1500 businesses which asks respondents to rate the relative 12-month economic outlook.

Above 0.0 indicates optimism, while below that indicates pessimism. The outlook for the previous month was pessimistic with an index value of -30.9.

Thursday, March 28

 

EUR – German Prelim CPI m/m – All Day (Medium Impact)

Shows the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

A price change of 0.5% for the previous month stood in line with the general consensus.

USD – Final GDP q/q – 8:30 am (High Impact)

Tracks the annualised change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

An annualised change of 3.4% for the previous quarter fell just short of reaching a 3.5% forecast.

Friday, March 29

 

GBP – Parliament Brexit Vote – Tentative (High Impact)

Big Ben at night with the UK flag as backdrop

Source: DF Markets

The UK Parliament will vote to decide on passage of the deal triggering Article 50 with European Union. The result will likely be projected before the official vote count is announced, based on early vote counts. A simple majority is needed to pass the bill.

GBP – Current Account – 5:30 am (High Impact)

Shows the difference in value between imported and exported goods, services, income flows, and unilateral transfers during the previous quarter.

Anvalue difference of -26.5B for the previous quarter underperformed vs. a -21.7B forecast.

GBP – Net Lending to Individuals m/m – 5:30 am (Medium Impact)

Tracks the change in the total value of new credit issued to consumers.

The total credit change for the previous month was 4.8B, slightly exceeding a 4.7B forecast.

CAD – GDP m/m – 8:30 am (High Impact)

Measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

An actual change of -0.1% for the previous month slightly dipped below a 0.0% forecast.

USD – Personal Spending m/m – 8:30 am (Medium Impact)

Measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all expenditures by consumers. This is significant data, though it tends to have a relatively mild impact because of the retail sales, which also covers consumer spending and which is released about 2 weeks earlier.

Missed our previous report? Go back and catch up on last week’s top news. You can also visit our economic calendar to study past and upcoming events in more detail.

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