Trading News to Watch Next Week (25 February-1 March 2019)


Our video features some, but not all, of the leading market events for next week. Explore the full list of 25 February-1 March events in our detailed report.

Monday, February 25

 

GBP – BOE Gov Carney Speaks – 5:00 am (High Impact)

During these hearings the BOE Governor and several MPC members testify on inflation and the economic outlook before Parliament’s Treasury Committee. The hearings are a few hours in length and can create market volatility for the duration.

Tuesday, February 26

 

GBP – Inflation Report Hearings – 5:00 am (High Impact)

UK-inflation-report

Source: DF Markets

During these hearings the BOE Governor and several MPC members testify on inflation and the economic outlook before Parliament’s Treasury Committee. The hearings are a few hours in length and can create market volatility for the duration. Especially noted are the direct comments made about the currency markets.

USD – CB Consumer Confidence – 10:00 am (High Impact)

Tracks the level of a composite index based on a survey of about 5 000 households which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions including labor availability, business conditions, and overall economic situation.

USD – Fed Chair Powell Testifies – 10:00 am (High Impact)

Due to testify on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee, in Washington DC. As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation’s currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinise his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

NZD – Trade Balance –  4:45 pm (Medium Impact)

Tracks the difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month. Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation’s exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers.

A positive number indicates that more goods were exported than imported. A positive value of 264M for the previous month crushed a 225M forecast.

AUD – Construction Work Done q/q – 7:30 pm (Medium Impact)

Monitors the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of construction projects completed. The report acts as an important gauge of the construction industry, which has a sizable impact on overall employment and spending.

An actual value of -2.8% for the previous quarter greatly underperformed vs. a 0.9% forecast.

Wednesday, February 27

 

CAD – CPI m/m – 8:30 am (High Impact)

Tracks the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. This is the most important inflation-related release due to its earliness and broad scope.

The data for this release includes the average price of various goods and services, which is sampled and then compared to the previous sampling.

An actual value of -0.1% for the previous month slightly outperformed a -0.4% forecast.

NZD – ANZ Business Confidence – 7:00 pm (High Impact)

Shows the level of a diffusion index based on a survey of about 1 500 businesses which asks respondents to rate the relative 12-month economic outlook.

Above 0.0 indicates optimism, while below that indicates pessimism. An actual value of -24.1 for December 2018 beat a -37.1 value for November 2018.

AUD – Private Capital Expenditure q/q – 7:30 pm (High Impact)

Shows the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of new capital expenditures made by private businesses.

An actual value of -0.5% for the previous quarter underperformed vs. a 1.1% forecast.

CNY – Manufacturing PMI – 8:00 pm (Medium Impact)

Tracks the level of a diffusion index based on a survey of 3000 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories.

Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, while below that indicates contraction. An actual value of 49.5 for the previous month narrowly beat a 49.3 forecast.

Thursday, February 28

 

EUR – German Prelim CPI m/m – All Day (Medium Impact)

Tracks the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.

An actual value of -0.8% for the previous month slightly outperformed a -0.9% forecast.

USD – FOMC Member Clarida Speaks – 8:00 am (Medium Impact)

FOMC meeting

Source: DF Markets

Due to speak at the National Association for Business Economists’ Annual Economic Policy Conference, in Washington DC. Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation’s key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

CAD – Current Account – 8:30 am (Medium Impact)

Shows the difference in value between imported and exported goods, services, investment income, and current transfers during the previous quarter.

An actual value of -10.3B for the previous quarter crushed a -11.9B forecast.

USD – Advance GDP q/q – 8:30 am (High Impact)

Shows the annualised change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

An actual value of 3.5% for the previous quarter beat a 3.3% forecast.

Friday, March 1

 

GBP – Manufacturing PMI – 4:30 am (Medium Impact)

Shows the level of a diffusion index based on a survey of about 600 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories.

Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, while below that indicates contraction. An actual value of 52.8 for the previous month slightly dipped below the 53.5 forecast.

GBP – Net Lending to Individuals m/m – 4:30 am (Medium Impact)

Tracks the change in the total value of new credit issued to consumers. The report is directly correlated with consumer spending and confidence—rising debt levels are a sign that lenders feel comfortable issuing loans, and that consumers are confident in their financial position and eager to spend money.

An actual value of 4.8B for the previous month crushed a 4.3B forecast.

CAD – GDP m/m – 8:30 am (High Impact)

Tracks the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

An actual value of -0.1% for the previous month resonated with the general consensus.

USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI – 10:00 am (High Impact)

Tracks the level of a diffusion index based on a survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories.

Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, while below that indicates contraction. An actual value of 56.6 for the previous month beat a forecast of 54.1

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Missed our previous report? Visit us here to catch up on last week’s top news. While you’re at it, don’t forget to also visit our economic calendar for extra details regarding each event.

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