Trading News to Watch Next Week (4-8 February 2019)

Leading trading news report for 4-8 february 2019

Source: DF Markets

Hello, and welcome to our weekly trading news report! Next week’s “VIP” reports include a RBA Rate Statement (AUD), BOE Inflation Report (GBP), Employment Change (CAD) and more. Let’s begin.

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Monday, February 4

 

AUD – Building Approvals m/m – 1:30 am (Medium Impact)

Tracks the change in the number of new building approvals issued. The report is an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining government approval is among the first steps in constructing a new building.

A value of -9.1% for the previous month greatly underperformed vs. a -0.3% forecast.

Tuesday, February 5

 

AUD – Retail Sales m/m – 1:30 am (High Impact)

Tracks the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. The report acts as the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

A value of 0.4% for the previous month slightly topped a 0.3% forecast.

AUD – Trade Balance – 1:30 am (Medium Impact)

Shows the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month. Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation’s exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers.

A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported. A value of 1.93B for the previous month greatly underperformed vs. a 2.18B forecast.

AUD – RBA Rate Statement – 4:30 am (High Impact)

The statement ranks among the the primary tools the RBA Reserve Bank Board uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future decisions.

Pictured: an office room with "Reserve Bank of Australia" and the Australian flag superimposed on top

Source: DF Markets
GBP – Services PMI – 10:30 am (Medium Impact)

Shows the level of a diffusion index based on a Survey of purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories.

A value of 51.2 for the previous month significantly outperformed a 50.7 forecast.

USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – 4:00 pm (High Impact)

Tracks the level of a diffusion index based on a survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories.

Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, while below that indicates contraction.An actual value of 57.6 for the previous month underperformed vs. a 59.6 forecast.

Wednesday, February 6

 

EUR – EU Economic Forecasts – 11:00 am (Medium Impact)

This report includes economic forecasts for EU member states over the next 2 years, and covers about 180 variables. The forecasts serve as the European Commission’s basis for evaluating economic performance and trends of EU member states in regard to potential austerity measures and other forced spending cuts.

NZD – Employment Change q/q – 10:45 pm (High Impact)

Monitors the change in the number of employed people. Although this data is released extremely late, it’s the earliest indication of the employment situation and tends to create hefty market impacts.

An actual value of 1.1% for the previous quarter crushed a 0.5% forecast.

NZD – Unemployment Rate – 10:45 pm (High Impact)

Shows the percentage of total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous quarter. Although it’s generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions.

An actual value for the previous quarter of 3.9% greatly outperformed a 4.4% forecast.

Thursday, February 7

 

GBP – BOE Inflation Report – 1:00 pm (High Impact)

Report provides the BOE’s projection for inflation and economic growth over the next 2 years. The BOE Governor also holds a press conference to discuss the report’s contents after release. In short, the report provides valuable insight into the bank’s view of economic conditions and inflation—the key factors that will shape the future of monetary policy and influence their interest rate decisions.

GBP – MPC Official Bank Rate Votes – 1:00 pm (High Impact)

The vote is reported in an ‘X-X-X’ format, where the first number shows how many MPC members voted to increase interest rates, the second number shows how many voted to decrease rates, and the third one denotes how many voted to hold rates.

GBP – Monetary Policy Summary – 1:00 pm (High Impact)

The report is among the primary tools the MPC uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their vote on interest rates and other policy measures, along with commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their votes. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future votes.

Bank of England

Source: DF Markets
GBP – Official Bank Rate – 1:00 pm (High Impact)

This represents the interest rate at which the BOE lends to financial institutions overnight. The rate decision is usually priced in the market, so it tends to be overshadowed by the Monetary Policy Summary, which is focused on the future.

Last month, a decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.75% confirmed the forecast.

Friday, February 8

 

AUD – RBA Monetary Policy Statement – 1:30 am (High Impact)

The policy statement provides valuable insight into the bank’s view of economic conditions and inflation—the key factors that will shape the future of monetary policy and influence their interest rate decisions.

CAD – Employment Change – 2:30 pm (High Impact)

Shows the change in the number of employed people during the previous month. This is vital economic data released shortly after the month ends. The combination of importance and earliness makes for hefty market impacts.

An actual value of 9.3K for the previous month crushed a 6.8K forecast.

CAD – Unemployment Rate – 2:30 pm (High Impact)

Shows the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. Although it’s generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions.

An actual value of 5.6% for the previous month slightly came ahead of a 5.7% forecast.

 

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Missed our previous report? Visit us here to catch up on last week’s top news. While you’re at it, don’t forget to also visit our Economic Calendar for extra details regarding each event.

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