Trading News to Watch Next Week (4-8 March 2019)

Our video features some, but not all, of the leading market events for next week. Explore the full list of 4-8 March events in our detailed report.

Monday, March 4

 

AUD – RBA Rate Statement – 10:30 pm (High Impact)

The statement acts among the primary tools the RBA Reserve Bank Board uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy.

It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future decisions;

AUD – Cash Rate – 10:30 pm (Medium Impact)

Tracks the interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries. Short-term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation—traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future.

An interest rate for the previous month of 1.50% remained consistent with the forecast.

Tuesday, March 5

 

GBP – BOE Gov Carney Speaks – 10:35 am (High Impact)

As head of the central bank, which controls short-term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation’s currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinise his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

AUD – RBA Gov Lowe Speaks – 5:10 pm (High Impact)

As head of the central bank, which controls short-term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation’s currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinise his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

AUD – GDP q/q – 7:30 pm (High Impact)

Monitors the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. This metric is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s health.

A value change of 0.3% for the previous quarter underperformed vs. a 0.6% forecast.

Wednesday, March 6

 

GBP – MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks – 7:10 am (Medium Impact)

Due to speak at the London School of Economics’ Economic Symposium. BOE MPC members vote on where to set the nation’s key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

CAD – Trade Balance – 8:30 am (High Impact)

Tracks the difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month. About 75% of Canadian exports are purchased by the US.

A positive number indicates that more goods were exported than imported. A value of -2.1B for the previous month confirmed a forecast of the same value.

CAD – BOC Rate Statement – 10:00 am (High Impact)

Bank of Canada rate statement

Source: DF Markets

The statement acts as the primary tool that the BOC uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future decisions.

CAD – Overnight Rate – 10:00 am (High Impact)

Tracks the interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend overnight funds between themselves. The rate decision is usually priced into the market, so it tends to be overshadowed by the BOC Rate Statement, which is focused on the future.

During a previous interest rate vote, a rate of 1.75% confirmed a forecast of the same value.

USD – FOMC Member Williams Speaks – 12:00 pm (Medium Impact)

Due to speak at the Economic Club of New York. Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation’s key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

GBP – MPC Member Saunders Speaks – 12:00 pm (Medium Impact)

Due to speak at the Imperial College Business School, in London. Audience questions expected. BOE MPC members vote on where to set the nation’s key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

AUD – Retail Sales m/m – 7:30 pm (High Impact)

Tracks the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. This report represents the earliest look at vital consumer spending data.

A value of -0.4% for the previous month clashed with a forecast of 0.0%.

Thursday, March 7

 

GBP – MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks – 4:30 am (Medium Impact)

Due to speak in Glasgow. BOE MPC members vote on where to set the nation’s key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

EUR – Main Refinancing Rate – 7:45 am (High Impact)

Tracks the interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system. The 6 members of the ECB Executive Board and 15 of the 19 governors of the Euro area central banks vote on where to set the rate via rotation. The split of votes is not publicly revealed.

During the previous vote an interest rate of 0.00% resonated with the general consensus.

EUR – ECB Press Conference – 8:30 am (High Impact)

European Central Bank Press Conference

Source: DF Markets

It’s the primary method the ECB uses to communicate with investors regarding monetary policy. It covers in detail the factors that affected the most recent interest rate and other policy decisions, such as the overall economic outlook and inflation. Most importantly, it provides clues regarding future monetary policy.

The press conference is about an hour long and has 2 parts—first a prepared statement is read, then the conference is open to press questions.

USD – FOMC Member Brainard Speaks – 12:15 pm (Medium Impact)

Due to speak about the economic outlook and monetary policy at Princeton University, in New Jersey. Audience questions expected. Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation’s key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

Friday, March 8

 

CAD – Employment Change – 8:30 am (High Impact)

Tracks the change in the number of employed people during the previous month. This is vital economic data released shortly after the month ends. The combination of importance and earliness makes for hefty market impacts.

An employment change of 66.8K for the previous month crushed a forecast of 6.5K.

CAD – Unemployment Rate – 8:30 am (High Impact)

Shows the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. Although it’s generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions.

An unemployment rate of 5.8% for the previous month slightly fell behind a 5.7% forecast.

USD – Average Hourly Earnings m/m – 8:30 am (High Impact)

Monitors the change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry.

A price change of 0.1% for the previous month slightly fell behind a 0.3% forecast.

USD – Non-Farm Employment Change – 8:30 am (High Impact)

Denotes the change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. This is vital economic data released shortly after the month ends. The combination of importance and earliness makes for hefty market impacts.

A price change of 304K for the previous month crushed a 165K forecast.

USD – Unemployment Rate – 8:30 am (High Impact)

Shows the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. Unemployment is typically a major consideration for those steering the country’s monetary policy.

An unemployment rate of 4% for the previous month slightly fell behind a 3.9% forecast.

USD – Fed Chair Powell Speaks – 10:00 pm (High Impact)

Due to speak about monetary policy normalization at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research Economic Summit, in California. As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation’s currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

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Missed our previous report? Visit us here to catch up on last week’s top news. While you’re at it, don’t forget to also visit our economic calendar for extra details regarding each event.

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